As we head into Stat Attack for Round Four of the 2016 Super Rugby competition, you could be forgiven for thinking that something’s missing… Yep, for the first time this year we head into the weekend with no local derbies!
The Reds, who have played three other Australian conference rivals and are yet to pick up a win, will be relishing the chance to host the Blues at Suncorp Stadium, while the Waratahs’ match against the Highlanders will likely be dominated by the sense of revenge they’ll be looking to muster following elimination from the competition last year at the hands of Friday night’s visitors.
Revenge is also on the menu in Cape Town, where the Brumbies won last time around against the Stormers, and in the process eliminated them from the competition last year! The Stormers lost at home to the Sharks last weekend, and the expectant crowd who will converge upon Newlands this weekend determined to see their side win adds more flavour to an already spicy match-up!
The Western Force showed some good signs last weekend against the Brumbies and will fancy their chances of an upset against the Hurricanes in Palmerston North, although they’ve never won against them in New Zealand, while the Rebels become the first ever Australian side to play in Tokyo against Japan’s Sunwolves.
There’s been plenty to like about the Australian conference in the opening three rounds of the competition, so could all five Australian teams conjure up a win this weekend? A trip through the archives tells us that it’s never been achieved before, albeit from little opportunities; this year's 3 rounds against completely foreign opposition is a first, usually limited to 1 or 2.
As far as we’re concerned, there’s no time better than the present to create a new record, and with that in mind we’ve crunched the numbers to find some key players who are going to help make it happen!
Hurricanes vs. Force (#HURvFOR), 17:35 (AEDT) Friday March 18th.
Fast fact. The first 53 Western Force points scored this year came from former Reds players: Jono Lance (34), Luke Morahan (10), Ben Tapuai (5) and Ian Prior (2). Peter Grant’s 67th minute conversion of Tapuai’s try last week broke the cycle.
Only Dane Haylett-Petty and Tapuai have played every minute for the Force so far this season (240), with only 8 Force players having started all 3 games of their campaign in contrast to the Hurricanes’ 13.
Haylett-Petty has the 2nd most carries of any back in the competition thus far with 37, and more metres gained than any other player with 260 as well as beating defenders 13 times for good measure! His Captain, Matt Hodgson, has made more tackles than anybody else in the competition (51 at 94%), while Adam Coleman has won 20 lineouts thus far in 2016 to top the Australian count in that category.
The Hurricanes were victorious last time these teams met at this venue in 2011, with 18 points to former Force & Wallabies star Cameron Shepherd not enough to avoid a 34-28 defeat. Both teams head into this content with 1-2 records; this is the first of three straight games in New Zealand for the Force, all against finalists from last year (Hurricanes, Chiefs and Highlanders).
Waratahs vs. Highlanders (#WARvHIG), 19:45 (AEDT) Friday March 18th.
Fast fact. The Waratahs have named two potential debutants on the bench for this game in Reece Robinson and Tom Robertson. They are in line to follow fellow 2016 Waratahs debutants Zac Guildford, Bryce Hegarty, David Horwitz and Angus Ta’avao. Matt Sandell was an un-used reserve in Round Two.
The Waratahs’ successful 2014 and 2015 seasons mean that they have actually won seven of their last nine clashes against New Zealand opposition; unfortunately for them, however, both of those losses have come at the hands of the Highlanders!
The Waratahs conceded just one first-half try so far this season, but they’ve also conceded more penalties than any other side (averaging 15.5 per game). They’ll look to Captain Michael Hooper to continue to break the line; he has a team-high five clean breaks thus far, while both Nick Phipps and Highlanders star Ben Smith average a try per game at the minute.
The Highlanders won a pre-season trial between these sides 40-35 in Queenstown less than a month ago, with Michael Hooper, Guildford, Rob Horne, Tatafu Polota-Nau and Hegarty on the try-sheet for the ‘Tahs; they’ll have to do it without the latter three, all out injured, this Friday.
Sunwolves vs. Rebels (#SUNvREB), 15:15 (AEDT) Saturday March 19th.
Fast fact. There could be two former Rebels players in the Sunwolves team on Saturday: front rowers Shota Horie (2013-2014) and Keita Inagaki (2015) spent time in Melbourne. Fellow International Kotaro Matsushima became the fourth Japanese Rebel when he made his debut against the Bulls in Pretoria in Round Two.
The Rebels have only ever won once outside of Australia, when they defeated the Crusaders in Christchurch in Round One last year, however this Saturday afternoon (AEDT) match-up sees them coming up against the only side in the competition who’ve never won a Super Rugby match!
To be fair, competition newbies the Sunwolves have impressed in their two Super Rugby matches thus far, and their 28 first half points against the Cheetahs in Round Three was the equal most points scored by any team in the opening half of any match across the first three weekends of Super Rugby.
The Rebels’ discipline has been very good in their 2-1 start to the season, conceding just 8 penalties per game to rank 2nd in the competition compared to the Sunwolves’ 11.5, and they are the only Australian team yet to receive a yellow card. James Hanson and Pat Leafa’s lineout service has been good to, with the visitors running at 85% in that area compared to the Sunwolves’ 73%, worst in the competition.
Mitch Inman has made 35 carries this season, the third most of any Australian player and the sixth most in the competition, while Sean McMahon isn’t far behind on 32 and Tom English’s 187 metres sees him in the competition’s top ten for metres gained; in fact, dynamic duo English and McMahon each beat 8 defenders and made 3 clean breaks against the Reds last week. Could they propel to the Rebels to a 3-1 start for the first time in their history?
Reds vs. Blues (#REDvBLU), 19:45 (AEDT) Saturday March 19th.
Fast fact. The Blues haven’t won in Brisbane since Round 3 2010, when current Western Force star Alby Mathewson scored a try in their 27-18 win. Current Melbourne Rebels prop Laurie Weeks scored his (so far) only Super Rugby try for the Reds that night.
While the Reds enter this match winless thus far in 2016, they were much improved against the Rebels in Round Three and will look to use their set piece to their advantage here; they are currently ranked 1st in the competition for scrum success (96%) and 2nd for lineout success (95%), despite a number of injuries to some of their most experienced tight five players in Kane Douglas, Saia Fainga’a and James Slipper.
Fijian winger Eto Nabuli continues to impress as he settles into Super Rugby following his switch from the NRL and he has a team-high 5 clean breaks, while substitute Curtis Browning was busy when he came on last week as he amassed 8 carries, beating two defenders in the process, and won a crucial turnover.
Rene Ranger and George Moala await Reds’ midfield duo Samu Kerevi and Anthony Fainga’a; Moala made eight offloads for the Blues in Round Three, double that of any other player, to leapfrog straight to the top of the season table, so shutting him down is vital if the Reds are to get on the board for the first time this year.
Stormers vs. Brumbies (#STOvBRU), 4:15 (AEDT) Sunday March 20th.
Fast fact. The Brumbies have ‘5 Super Subs’: Nigel Ah-Wong, Michael Dowsett, Les Makin, Josh Mann-Rea & Jordan Smiler have come on to the field after starting as reserves in all three of their matches in 2016. The Rebels have only called upon 1 player off the bench in each of their three games (Pat Leafa), the Force 2 (Chris Heiberg & Peter Grant) and the Reds 2 as well (Ben Matwijow & Sam Talakai).
The Brumbies’ two-game South African tour (they play the Cheetahs in Round Five) comes on the back of a solid win over the Force in Round Three which sees them retain their 100% record. It’s a case of one the competition’s best attacking sides coming up against the competition’s best defensive team; while the Brumbies & Chiefs have scored the equal most tries of any team in the competition (15) thus far, the Stormers’ 3 tries conceded is the fewest of any team.
The Brumbies will look to target the Stormers’ scrum, third worst in the competition as it operates at 77%, but against the best tackling team in the competition (91%) they’ll need to ensure Tomas Cubelli, Christian Leali’ifano & Matt Toomua turn on their best creative talents to secure territory and advance the attack. Getting into a kicking competition with the Stormers is dangerous; they kick more than any other team (26.7 times per match)!
The Brumbies have utilised their bench very effectively so far in 2016 with a try to a reserve in every game so far (2 to Mann-Rea and 1 to Ah-Wong). Tom Staniforth won two important turnovers last week while both he and Smiler made a crucial lineout steal apiece; championship-winning teams traditionally call upon a full match day squad regularly on the way to success, and if the Brumbies’ replacements can again make an impact here and help them retain that perfect start they’ll be travelling very nicely indeed!
